Author Archives: joel

About joel

Retired Higher Ed administrator, flyfisherman and geek

Visit to Asheville

A quick visit to Asheville NC. Youngest son, Jeff, will be starting UNC Asheville in the fall, and he has freshman orientation tomorrow. Jan and will not be helicopter parents, as this is #2 son going to college, and we’re now “old hands.” We’ll drop him off, and after a few minutes, head up to hike and catch a trout in the Shining Rock Wilderness.

Downtown Asheville is a great place. Fine pizza, al fresco, at the Mellow Mushroom, along with a few pints of microbrews. Afterwards, sat in rocking chairs on the porch of the Thomas Wolfe house and enjoyed the breeze (and called my dad for Father’s Day).

Hope to have some pictures to post tomorrow of hiking and fishing…

Sun & sand…

Well, not at the coast, but yesterday (5/25) at Jordan Lake. Got the boat and operational for the season. Took a new battery, the old one wouldn’t keep a charge. Loaded up the boat, put the dogs in the back of the Yukon, and Jan & I headed to the Fearrington Point ramps. Started up the boat, and nosed out into the lake. Great to see water in the lake, after last year’s drought. Jordan is still about a foot over normal pool. We headed about 3 miles down the lake to our favorite little “beach”…a small area of pretty, white sand under the pine trees.

We got out the chaise lounges, the Sunday NY Times, and got set to relax. The dogs (labs) wanted anything thrown to them for retrieval…and soon! We had a frisbee, a foxtail, and a tennis ball with a Chuckit (this is one of those things that you say, why couldn’t I have developed that?). It’s impossible to wear out a 3 year old lab (Lessa), but we tried. Even the old dog, Anakin, who’s pushing 13, was swimming eagerly after the toys.

Finally, a chance to sit down in the chaise and soak up some sun. A glass of cold pinot grigio? Of course! Grabbed it from the cooler, along with two wine glasses. Ah, the life!

Oh well, back to work today (we get this day as a part of our winter holiday, so I’m actually in the office…)

Google sites open to everyone…

A cool development…Google has opened up Google Sites to anyone with a Google account, not just Google apps customers. This is the old “JotSpot.com” that Google bought, and has wrapped in the look & feel of “Googleness.” This really puts wysiwyg web editing in the hands of virtually any web user, including wiki/blog-like functionality. Try it out! Their video does a much better job of describing it than I can here…see the Google blog post on this…

Book Review, “The Age of Turbulence”, by Alan Greenspan

One of the most enjoyable books I’ve read in a while is “The Age of Turbulence.” I’ll confess up front that I’ve always had a great deal of admiration for the seeming stability with which Greenspan ran the Federal Reserve Board, and while I consider myself a political liberal, my undergraduate degree is in business, and I think I absorbed too much capitalism to be an economic liberal. I’d heard that this book was a very readable peek into global finance & economics, and I certainly concur.

Greenspan starts the book with two chapters on his childhood and education, and from there goes into the beginnings of his career as an economist. I think there’s something I related to in his account of his academic years…he left his doctoral studies for his career and life. While I started graduate school after I began my working career and I did finish a Master’s, I left the doctoral program with the coursework behind me before starting a dissertation. The fact that Greenspan finished his PhD in later years gives me hope.

After discussing his schooling and his years at Townsend-Greenspan, he turns to his introduction to politics on the campaign of Richard Nixon, and then his work with and admiration for Gerald Ford. Greenspan went back to private life during the Carter administration, but was tapped for his Federal Reserve post by Reagan.

The book was informative on the workings of the Fed, but the parts I found most fascinating, personally, were the descriptions of the workings of the government and politics and their intersection with the economy. Greenspan was very comfortable with Bill Clinton, and found him not only engaged in and caring about economics, but understanding this and making good decisions. My take-away was that while Clinton indeed presided over the “dot com” boom, that this was not entirely good fortune and serendipity…the economic policies and decisions by the Clinton White House has much to do with this boom in economic history.

We all know the phrase “irrational exuberance” that was uttered by Greenspan in 1996 as the Dow charged ahead. I found it quite interesting to read the context of this and the way those words have become part of the popular culture.

The beginnings of the downturn in 2000 and the change in the presidency was a pivotal time. I found that Greenspan actually didn’t think much of Bush 43, particularly as he insisted on doing what he said vis-a-vis taxes and the economy, rather than adapting to the strategy warranted by the change in economic conditions, and that Bush 43 also did not try to rein in spending and maintain the balanced budget left him by Clinton.

His assessments of the other significant and growing world economies are quite readable and thought-provoking. America cannot be an isolated island. While de Tocqueville rightly attributed much of the early growth and stability of this country to its fortuitous geography, we no longer have that luxury. This is a global world and global economy. Decisions have to be made that are consistent with that framework. Globalization, as Greenspan says, is a positive factor “…all credible evidence indicates that the benefits of globalization far exceed its costs, even beyond the realm of economics.”

We must think about the future, Greenspan says. We have to engage the world, and we have to have an educational system that addresses the need to supply skilled workers to keep competitive and to help address income inequality.

This is an excellent book. Engaging, interesting and well written.

Vacation day…I could get used to this stuff…

Somehow, I managed to pick the nicest day of this week for a day off, even though I’d locked this in about 6 weeks ago. 80F, blue skies, light wind…classic April in the South.

Started the day with cappuccino from the new FrancisFrancis machine (took the “coffee club” deal from Illy) — the old faithful Gaggia Synchrony Compact was not so faithful any more. The FrancisFrancis is a simple machine, but it makes great coffee. Actually takes about the same amount of time as the Gaggia, even though that does the grind/tamp automatically. Then, I headed to get some more coffee ;-), meeting my long-time friend and fishing buddy Sam for coffee near his office. Then, over to Foster’s Lake and Pond to buy some hybrid sunfish (Green sunfish/Bluegill) to restock Morgan Creek where it backs to my neighborhood. Morgan Creek dried up in the drought in fall 2007. I had to restock in 2002 after the last drought. I like to flyfish for the little sunnies there, so if I didn’t want for nature to take its course, I needed to help out. Bought 150 @ $.65 ea. for the 2-4″ fish. They’ll be catchable by late summer. $100 well spent!

I’d been thinking about maybe going to fish the Haw River for the White Bass run (it’s about 20 miles from the house) but decided to stay closer to home, to go take some trash to the dump and then try the sunfish in New Hope Creek. Water temp was 61F, which is a bit cool for aggressive feeding, esp. top water, but I enticed 4 or 5 nice Green sunfish up with a small black bugger on my 00-weight rod. Put a nice bend in it.

Home at 3:30PM, sitting on the patio enjoying a cold one. Yep, I like this vacation stuff…

More on twitter…

OK, I’m liking twitter…I’m enjoying both keeping up with a couple of my colleagues, and the programs for posting “tweets” make it very easy! I’ve installed twitterific and twhirl. I’ve got halo on my iPod Touch. I’ve got my phone hooked up for text messages. I’ve got my facebook status updating with my tweets. A virtual colleague just picked up on a tweet to facebook and sent me a message…

This stuff has possibilities! I may be a slow adopter, but I do eventually get there 😉

Catching up on odds & ends…twitter & friendfeed…

Well, I have been spending the afternoon catching up a zillion emails. At the beach right now, spent a great morning walking several miles, bright sun, if somewhat cool & windy. The expected cold front is finally beginning to sag across the area now, and soon it will be time to go get a peck of steamed oysters for dinner. But before that…those zillion emails…

One was from a colleague who’s really into web 2.0, social networking, etc. He shared his FriendFeed with me a couple weeks ago, and I finally had a few minutes to check it out…I did and then set up my own. Decided to set up a Twitter account as well…will give it a try. Don’t know if I have the energy for all this “lifelogging”…

Now about those oysters…Jimmy Buffet once said “…give me oysters & beer, for dinner every day of the year…” 😉

Later!

Book Review, “The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

This is a book I’ve wanted to read since it came out about a year ago, but it just made it to the top of my reading stack. I gave a copy to my dad for Christmas, and when he finished, it came back my way. A good deal 😉

The subtitle of this book is “The Impact of the Highly Improbable” and Taleb tells a compelling story about our tendancy to ignore the unexpected. I’ll confess that I felt the topic could have been covered with fewer words (probably because I agreed with his thesis going into the book), but Taleb’s anecdotes are interesting, though I found the reading tedious at times. His hypothetical states of Mediocristan and Extremistan provide a nice framework for the argument…models and plans work in Mediocristan (a land of stability and central tendancies) but fail with the outliers, the fat-tailed (or bimodal dumbbell) distributions of Extremistan (a land of unpredictability). I’ve always been one who liked the first 80% of a problem or task, and got bored with dotting the “i’s” and crossing the “t’s”, and the idea that exhaustive planning is bound to fail in our real world of Extremistan resonates with me. Yes, you have to plan, but realize that you can’t plan for all the eventualities, and that planning and the execution of plans needs to be tempered with a knowledge that things just may pan out in a way totally outside your expectation. The Bell Curve may look appealing, but a high sigma event happens more often than it should. I liked his discussion of scalability…trying to set bounds is itself bound to fail. Why is a bound valid (except, I suppose, where there are certain physical constants that we don’t know how to move beyond…hmmm… sounds like an opportunity for a Black Swan!). The Fractal Randomness model is, as Taleb says, aesthetically pleasing, and allows us (through scaling) to at least partially anticipate the possibility of something so extreme (we are in Extremistan!) that it would have been a Black Swan, but is now a Gray Swan — at least somewhat conceptualized. Taleb says “…Mandelbrot domesticated many of my Black Swans, but not all of them, not completely. But he shows us a glimmer of hope with his method…”

So, if we can’t avoid Black Swans with exhaustive planning, what can we do? Look for ways to expose yourself to the potential of positive Black Swans, and work to mitigate the damage that negative Black Swans can bring. Expose yourself to serendipity, but beware the freak storm blowing on your house of cards.

A thought provoking book and worth a read.

Flyfishing for Hickory Shad…

I don’t get out to fish as much as I’d like, but I did get a chance to wet a line today (even if I did spend an hour on a conference call while driving home). In March, Hickory Shad (an anadromous fish that comes up the rivers to spawn) fill many rivers in eastern North Carolina. The Roanoke River has a large run, and the fish move upstream until blocked by the dam at Roanoke Rapids Lake. They are great fun to catch, concentrating in large numbers and providing acrobatic fights on light tackle.

I drove from Chapel Hill to Weldon, about 110 miles. I got to the Weldon ramp about 10:30AM. The wind was really howling, since a cold front came through during the night. The temperature was in the 50’s and the sun was bright, and the water level was perfect. Without the wind, conditions would have been ideal. As it was, casting was quite a challenge, as was staying anchored in my one-man pontoon boat, as the wind was swirling me around my anchor, making it difficult to cast in a consistent direction. However, the fish were there! I caught a few, then it slowed down. I realized that I was not getting my fly deep enough, even with nickel eyes and a sink tip line. I finally got the boat stabilized, and started catching them again. Caught about 25 or so, and about 2:30PM decided that casting a heavy fly into the wind was a lot of work. Rowed across the river to the ramp, loaded up, and headed for home.

A great day! Stopped by the wine store on the way home to pick up an Aussie mixed case; will open one up shortly!